Climate change projections of commercial fish distribution and suitable habitat around north western Europe

Under future climate change, modification of temperature and salinity are expected to result in distribution shifts marine organisms, including commercial fish shellfish. Changes anticipated everywhere, the seas many important fishing nations. Species turnover will turn both opportunities threats industries. To determine impacts for northwest European shelf fisheries, we project changes 49 commercially shellfish species using an ensemble five ecological niche models three different downscaled change projections. The habitat suitability latitudinal projected from recent past (1997–2016) two futures (2030–2050; 2050–2070) were calculated waters around United Kingdom. Of examined, half have consistently more suitable future, seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax, Moronidae), sardine (Sardina pilchardus, Alosidae) anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus, Engraulidae). Conversely, it is suggested that UK become less Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua, Gadidae) saithe (Pollachius virens, Gadidae). Our comprehensive approach a number scenarios shows while there differences magnitude between models, some perform better certain compared with others, overall, general trends abundance robust across scenarios. This emphasises value than one modelling technique (i.e., approach) capture uncertainty or agreement